Expert Who Accurately Predicted Virus Timeline Claims ‘There Will Be No Third Wave’.
Professor Philip Thomas suggests “there is little convincing evidence” that “Britain is about to be hit by a third wave, accompanied by a renewed surge in deaths.” He has also been very critical of “pessimistic experts” whose “bleak foreboding” suggested the UK could enter “another health crisis.” A third wave would throw travel plans for British holidaymakers to Spain in turmoil before Spain’s state of alarm comes to an end in May.
Madrid Border Closures
On April 16th it was announced that Spain’s capital, Madrid, would close the borders of 17 of its health zones, as well as three different municipalities. However, experts have not declared the rise in infections are due to a third coronavirus wave.
Prof Thomas believes the death rates will remain “extremely low” even if the rates of infection go up thanks to the Government’s vaccination drive. He added that based on the current figures, plans to lift all remaining restrictions by June 21 could soon be a reality. Writing for Mail Online, Prof Thomas pointed to claims made about possibly tens of thousands of deaths.
He added: “In the same vein, at the beginning of the month, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) — whose modelling has provided the basis for the tough lockdown policy — warned that Britain is ‘highly likely’ to suffer a third wave, while any attempt to return to life as it was in February 2020 would probably result in ‘a big epidemic’.
“This gloom has been compounded by fears about the advent of more infectious variants of the virus, such as the new B.1.617 type from India, whose spread across the subcontinent has just forced the Prime Minister to cancel his forthcoming visit there.”
Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor/Clinical Virologist, University of Leicester, said:
“The main issue to keep in mind is that the majority of people in Europe are not yet vaccinated against COVID-19, which may underlie the development of a current 3rd (or 4th) wave. So ongoing viral replication will always have the potential to produce new variants.
“Although the UK has vaccinated almost 30 million people, with perhaps about 5-10 million people with natural immunity, almost half of the remaining population are not yet immune, which is still plenty of people in whom the virus can spread exponentially.
“Also, if the source of immunity is the AstraZeneca vaccine, various studies have shown that it is much less effective against the South African variant than the Pfizer vaccine (see e.g. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214) – so the immunity in the UK population may not be that secure – and other such vaccine-escape variants may spontaneously arise from outside or within the UK.
“So some degree of social distancing and masking when indoors with other people may still be wise – until all adults are vaccinated to reduce the overall viral replication in the population which will reduce the chances of such variants arising.
“In addition, if international travel does open up, then those vaccinated may be protected against some viral strains (like the UK Kent variant) more than others (like the South African and possibly the Brazilian P1 variant). But if they encounter any viral variants that may cause symptomatic, or more likely, asymptomatic infection and bring these back to the UK, then this could seed vaccine escape variants in the UK population.”
Source: Mail Online